The Baltimore rental market: 2010 - Present
As we usher in a new decade, let’s look back at the ten years that just passed. Baltimore City experienced a roller coaster ride socially, economically and politically. So much happened that we don’t have the time or space to discuss it here. However, for real estate agents, property owners, managers and investors, the residential rental environment took a dynamic turn.
Over the past five years, friends, family and Uber and Lyft drivers have all asked, “What’s up with building all these apartments downtown?” And it’s just not downtown proper, it’s a phenomenon happening in all the waterfront neighborhoods. After decades of wandering in the woods, did City development finally find its way through the trees?
With strong demand during the beginning of the last decade, 2014 saw Baltimore City approve legislation that gave developers a fifteen-year tax credit to convert underutilized space into residential units. A key aspect of the law allowed developers to get a pass on paying taxes on the first two years of their project.
The re-imagining of century old architecture was not the only space where this boom would occur. The last five years saw the planning and development of luxurious projects built from the ground up in the waterfront communities encircling downtown. From 2012 – 2017, the Downtown Partnership of Baltimore released data showing that nearly 5,200 new apartments and condos came on the market. For the entire decade, the Baltimore Business Journal reported about 14,000 new Class A luxury multi-family units were added to the City.
You hear talk that developers will only build luxury housing these days because that’s the only way to get a necessary return on investment. This is part of the equation. The other part is demand. For this much development, you need a lot of demand.
Who’s living in these places?
There has been a steady increase in income growth among downtown residents. According to Yardi Matrix’s “Steady Baltimore: Multifamily Report Summer 2019”, the Baltimore metropolitan area gained 11,700 jobs from June 2018 – June 2019. In fact, the Professional and Business Services, Education Health Services and Manufacturing sectors created 17,400 jobs alone – offsetting losses in other industries. The expected future growth in areas like Technology gives no reason to stop building downtown and in the surrounding areas.
Professionals working downtown, Millennials and empty nesters value “walkability” and are attracted to the amenities being offered by these newly constructed or remodeled units which include: 24-hour concierge, community kitchens and bars, business lounges, state-of-the-art-gyms, yoga studios, salons, theaters, pet park and runs, pools and community and resident gardens. Units lease from $1200 a month for a one bedroom to over $8000 per month for penthouses.
Gone are the days when investors could buy a rehab rowhome in the Canton and Federal Hill neighborhoods and demand any desired rent. There is still a priority to live in these neighborhoods, however luxury apartments are creating a sense of “inner” community within their communities.
And more luxury units are coming.
Some of the latest data show there are over 2,200 new apartment units under construction as of September 2019.
And it’s not just happening here?
The trend is being played out across multiple metropolitan areas throughout the country. Apartment List's Rentanomics put out a paper last year were they tracked high-income renter households. This group, whose annual income floor was $100,000, was the fastest growing segment of the housing market – with a national growth rate of 48 percent from 2008 – 2017. Some mid-sized metropolitan areas like Denver and Austin have seen this number grow as drastically as 146 and 142 percent respectively.
Since the Financial Crisis, Baltimore itself has seen this demographic of renter households rise by 40 percent. On the high-end, supply is holding rents at bay. But supply at the other end of the rental market could start driving prices up due to high occupancy rates. In conjunction with occupancy rates, data shows nationally that since 2008, renters are staying in the mid to low rent property range longer compared to before the Crisis.
Some solutions need to be figured out
This cannot go on forever. Urban areas are finite spaces. At some point, due to income inequalities and a lack of affordable housing, some local or federal policy may have to be involved. Or we can hope some urban planning genius comes up with an idea that leads us into a new way of city living for the rest of this Century.
If you’re looking to rent in Baltimore or another urban area, I hope this gives you a clearer picture of the environment. Property managers and investors in cities – with an established portfolio or just starting out – may want to have a conversation with someone and figure out a plan going forward.